What are the prospects for shipping and especially shipping for energy transport? This was the central question that occupied a very interesting panel organized by Tradewinds in the context of this year's Poseidonia.
Vangelis Marinakis first emphasized that predictions are not easy in shipping: "We bet on what happened yesterday, what is happening now and what will happen tomorrow. I will mention some factors that we take seriously in what we do in the future and also some other factors that are difficult to predict, as what we consider today may look academic tomorrow and have big surprises. Because that's how shipping is, that's why predictions don't always come true."
To substantiate the possibility of a more optimistic approach the founder and chairman of Capital Maritime & Trading Corp noted: “We see that nowadays the world population is increasing and that when countries develop and populations get electricity and lights, it is very difficult to let's stop it. The delay is until the country develops."
In this context he underlined that the concern that the optimism will be succeeded by a sharp deterioration like in 2008 is not justified: "Just because many people are worried that all this optimism we see in the Neptunes of 2024 is like 2008 and 2-3 months later it started the collapse with the subprimes, Lehmann Brothers, today we are seeing something that we could not see 15 or 20 years ago. Things are a little different than they were 16 years ago. First of all, the demand for energy is increasing a lot and we see that, because of Artificial Intelligence, we need, especially in the US but also in Europe, a lot more energy and water, which will be very important in the coming years and more important than, what they were until today".
The other element of optimism according to Vangelis Marinakis is related to the increase in orders for new ships: "For many types of ships in the last 10 years new ship orders have been minimal or non-existent, and this gives us optimism for the future and of course we see what happens with LNG and we expect much higher production in the next 2-3 years. We see solid demand there – and of course, on the other hand, tomorrow there could be a serious trade war between China and the US, and what we're talking about today won't exist. So we are betting on the good side and hope not to face big surprises in the near future."
Vangelis Marinakis seemed optimistic regarding the impact that the situation in the Suez Canal will have on shipping: "What has been happening in the last 3-4 months in the Suez Canal is something we have not yet seen the effects of. Towards the end of the year or the second half of the year we may be surprised to see that the impact on the market will be more significant and we will see much better markets, especially in container and dry cargo. It's something we haven't seen so far, like we've seen on tankers."
Healthy market and charterers willing to pay more
In relation to the great challenge of ships that transport alternative fuels as well as carbon dioxide, Vangelis Marinakis appeared optimistic: "We see a healthy market and we also see charterers who a year or two before delivery are willing to pay much more money for ships, which was not done a few years ago. On the other hand, with regard to CO2 transport ships - carriers, the same ship can be active in the LPG trade and in the ammonia trade [art. these are ships] in sizes that have not been built at all in the last 5 years, which means we can afford to wait or even make better trade deals on LPG than CO2. But of course we see a lot of demand in CO2 and it's only a matter of time before the CO2 loads are ready to move. Certainly that perspective is already here, we see it from the industry and we hope that what we have done will be a very good investment and also contribute to a healthier environment."
It is the responsibility of governments to ensure that sanctions work in a serious way
Vangelis Marinakis also addressed another serious problem facing shipping, the "dark fleet" that has not complied with the sanctions in Russia, creating an unequal and problematic situation. "If we calculate that the "dark fleet" as you said is close to 1,000 ships, that on a daily basis they sail in the Mediterranean, in the Baltic, throughout Europe, what do we do about it? We follow the regulations, we do what we have to do and next to our ship there is a ship of the "dark fleet" sailing and causing pollution, conflicts, whatever".
On this basis, Vangelis Marinakis underlined that there is a responsibility of the governments to ensure that the sanctions work in a serious way and do not result in a "punishment" of the consumers and the economy: "I think that the governments have not done enough to prevent that, plus the classifications, plus the insurance, and I think we all follow the regulations, we respect the sanctions, but at the same time all these things happen and can easily happen, and have happened, they don't make any sense."
Olympiacos and Nottingham Forest
Football was not missing from the discussion. Commenting on the successes of Olympiakos and especially the youth team, Vangelis Marinakis emphasized that "the youth team won the Youth League of the UEFA Champions League, and for the first time in the history of UEFA one team wins both titles. But he is not that young, 19 years old in modern football is not someone young. I mean, all these teams that we played, Bayern, Milan, in the men's team, they have at least a minimum of three to six 18- and 19-year-old players in the first team. I think that was a great achievement, but it shows that it comes from hard work in the academy. And I think that's the future, the teams, it's very good for the country."
As for the issue of Nottingham Forest's stadium, Vangelis Marinakis underlined once again that his goal remains for the team to acquire a larger capacity stadium: "We will try to increase the capacity by getting permission from the Local Council, otherwise we have found an area where we can build a stadium with a capacity of 50,000 or 55,000 spectators that will change the whole area. Very soon we will have to decide. But we will definitely go ahead with this big plan."
source: ot.gr
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